Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
